Severe Weather Outlook

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued at 2:09pm Thursday 27 Apr 2017
Valid from Saturday 29 April 2017 to Tuesday 2 May 2017

On Saturday and Sunday a low approaches the upper North Island from the northwest. The associated warm front should sweep down the North Island with a period of heavy rain. There is a high risk rainfall accumulations will reach warning levels over Bay of Plenty from Saturday to Sunday and a moderate risk over the remainder of the upper North Island as well as the Tararua Range, as indicated on the chart.

On Sunday, a cold front should cross the South Island followed by a cold southerly flow with snow showers about the ranges and higher hills.

On Monday, a ridge should spread over the South Island while an easterly flow brings rain to the east of the North Island. There is a low risk rainfall will reach warning levels over northern Hawkes Bay and southern Gisborne on Monday and Tuesday.

Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

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