Severe Weather Outlook

Issued at 2:30pm Tuesday 23 Oct 2018
Valid from Thursday 25 October 2018 to Sunday 28 October 2018

On Thursday a front is forecast to move north over the South Island and lower North Island, bringing rain to many parts and a period of snow to the Otago Mountains. There is a moderate risk that rainfall accumulations will approach warning criteria about the Westland Ranges on Thursday, and a Watch is currently in force.

The front weakens away over northern New Zealand on Friday, while a ridge of high pressure spreads over the South Island. On Saturday, a complex trough of low pressure approaches New Zealand from the Tasman Sea, and moves slowly east over the country on Sunday. Outbreaks of rain are expected over much of New Zealand with this trough over the weekend, especially about northern and western parts of the North Island and northern parts of the South Island. At this stage, this trough isn't expected to bring much severe weather to the country, although there is a low risk of heavy rain about the ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty.

Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

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