Severe Weather Outlook

Issued at 2:25pm Thursday 20 Jun 2019
Valid from Saturday 22 June 2019 to Tuesday 25 June 2019

On Saturday, a complex trough of low pressure is forecast to move slowly northeast over the South Island bringing a period of rain to most places, while a ridge over the North Island weakens.

On Sunday, a ridge builds over the South Island, while rain is expected for much of the North Island as the complex trough moves onto the island from the south and a low crosses the island from the northwest.

Despite the forecast unsettled weather over the weekend, the risk of associated severe weather is not expected at this stage.

On Monday, the low should move away to the east allowing the ridge over the South Island to spread over the entire country, and remain through Tuesday.

Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

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