TownsRuralMarineMtnsMaps

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued at 2:54pm Sunday 13 Oct 2019
Valid from Tuesday 15 October 2019 to Friday 18 October 2019

A broad and deep low pressure system is forecast to slowly move southeast across the northern half of the North Island on Tuesday and lie to the east of Gisborne on Wednesday. Late Thursday, another broad and complex low pressure system is forecast to approach New Zealand from the Tasman Sea and then move onto the country on Friday.

These weather systems are expected to bring widespread rain, with some heavy falls, and strong winds to many parts of the country.

On Tuesday, there is moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain in Northland and Auckland, while the confidence is high for warning amounts of rain in Coromandel Peninsula with the risk reducing to moderate on Wednesday.

There is moderate confidence that rainfall accumulations will reach warning criteria in Bay of Plenty west of Whakatane, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay during Tuesday and Wednesday with the risk being low for Wairarapa, eastern hills of Wellington and the Kaikoura Coast during the same period.

Also on Thursday and Friday, there is moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain in Westland and Fiordland with the risk reducing to low in Buller and the western ranges of Nelson on Friday.

In addition, there is high confidence that southeast winds will rise to severe gale force in exposed parts of Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Waikato during Tuesday, and there is low risk of severe gale southwesterlies in exposed parts of Northland on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

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