TownsRuralMarineMtnsMaps

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued at 2:21pm Thursday 22 Feb 2018
Valid from Saturday 24 February 2018 to Tuesday 27 February 2018

A ridge of high pressure is expected to move east over the country on Sunday, with a northwest flow developing over the South Island ahead of an oncoming front. This front and associated low are expected to pass east over the South Island on Monday, bringing rain to Fiordland and the West Coast. The rain then spreads into Buller from late Monday into Tuesday as the front continues east, eventually passing over the North Island later on Tuesday.

Rain is expected to be heavy about western parts of the South Island with the front, with a high risk of rainfall accumulations reaching warning amounts about Fiordland and southern Westland from late Sunday to Monday, then a moderate confidence for the remainder of Westland and Buller from Monday to Tuesday.

Strong north to northwesterlies are expected about the South Island and lower North Island as this system passes east, with a low confidence of severe gales about inland parts of Canterbury, Otago and Southland on Sunday, and about Wellington and southern Wairarapa on Tuesday.

Colder southerlies are expected about the lower South Island on Tuesday, with steady rain about Southland and Otago. There is a low risk of rainfall accumulations reaching warning amounts about Southland and Clutha on Tuesday.


Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

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