Severe Weather Outlook

Issued at 2:27pm Friday 19 Apr 2019
Valid from Sunday 21 April 2019 to Wednesday 24 April 2019

An active front is forecast to to lie over central New Zealand early Sunday and should move across the North Island during Sunday and Monday. The front is preceded by a moist northerly flow and followed by an unsettled south to southwest flow.

There is low confidence that rainfall warnings will be needed associated with this front in several places - for Buller, northwest Nelson, inland Canterbury and Marlborough and the Tararua Range on Sunday and over the hill country from Taranaki across to the ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty and Gisborne on Sunday and Monday.

On Monday, a narrow ridge of high pressure is expected to develop over the lower South Island, then a weak front moves northeast across the lower South Island on Tuesday and onto the North Island during Wednesday.

Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

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