Severe Weather Outlook

A ridge of high pressure is expected to lie over the North Island on Wednesday, with a northwesterly flow over the South Island.

A front is expected to move northeast over the South Island during Thursday and Friday, before becoming slow moving about Buller and weakening. Rain about Fiordland is expected to become heavy during Thursday and Friday, with a moderate risk of accumulations reaching warning criteria. Heavy rain spreads north into Westland and Buller during Friday and Saturday, with a low confidence that accumulations will reach warning criteria.

Strong northwesterlies are also expected about Wellington, Wairarapa and inland parts of the South Island during Thursday and Friday, with a low risk of severe gale gusts about Southland and Clutha.

Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

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