Weather Warnings

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued at 8:29pm Thursday 21 Feb 2019
Valid from Saturday 23 February 2019 to Tuesday 26 February 2019

Reissued du to typo. No change to forecast.

On Saturday, a low over the upper North Island should move rapidly eastwards. Rain or showers are expected in many places, especially in the north, first thing, but should soon ease.

There is low confidence of rainfall accumulations meeting warning criteria from Coromandel Peninsula to East Cape.

On Sunday, an active trough should move northwards across central and northern New Zealand, bringing strong cold southerlies and showers.

There is low confidence of significant heavy rain from coastal North Canterbury to southern Gisborne.

Also on Sunday, there is low confidence of severe southeast gales in Buller and northwest Nelson, and of southerly gales becoming severe from the Kaikoura Coast to Taranaki and northeastwards to East Cape, as indicated on the chart.

Later on Sunday and on Monday, a ridge of high pressure should move onto the country from the Tasman Sea, with more settled weather expected.

Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

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