Severe Weather Outlook

Issued at 2:36pm Friday 20 Oct 2017
Valid from Sunday 22 October 2017 to Wednesday 25 October 2017

A west to northwest flow lies over the country throughout the forecast period, with rain at times in the west of the South Island not expected to reach warning criteria.

On Monday, a front sinks down across the North Island from the northwest bringing rain to many parts of the upper North Island, before moving away to the east early Tuesday. From later Monday until early Tuesday, there is low confidence of warning amounts of rain falling about the ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty.

During the outlook period, strong to gale force west to northwest winds are also likely in exposed places at times, but these are not expected to become severe at this stage.

Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

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