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Severe Weather Outlook

Issued at 1:52pm Thursday 16 Aug 2018
Valid from Saturday 18 August 2018 to Tuesday 21 August 2018

A ridge of high pressure should lie over New Zealand on Saturday, bringing mostly settled weather. This ridge is expected to move slowly eastwards during Sunday. On Monday, a complex trough over the Tasman Sea is the forecast to spread a moist northerly flow over the country, and this should continue through Tuesday.

During Monday and Tuesday, there is low confidence that rainfall accumulations will meet warning criteria from Nelson to northern Fiordland. There is also low confidence of significant heavy rain across the central North Island from Taranaki to East Cape, as indicated on the chart.


Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

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