TownsRuralMarineMtnsMaps

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued at 2:02pm Wednesday 28 Jun 2017
Valid from Friday 30 June 2017 to Monday 3 July 2017

A ridge of high pressure over the country is expected to move eastwards on Friday, as a large low over the Tasman Sea approaches New Zealand. The low and associated fronts should move slowly across the country during Saturday and Sunday, bringing rain and strong northeast winds to much of New Zealand.

There is moderate confidence that rainfall accumulations will meet warning criteria in Westland and northern Fiordland on Friday and early Saturday, and over Buller, Nelson, Marlborough and Taranaki on Saturday and early Sunday.

Also on Saturday and Sunday, there is low confidence of significant widespread rain over most of the northern half of the North Island, as indicated on the chart. A smaller area of moderate confidence covers the area from Coromandel Peninsula to Taupo, and eastwards to East Cape.

There is also low confidence of significant widespread rain from Clutha to North Otago on Sunday.

Finally, northeast winds are likely become strong or galeforce in many northern and central parts, and from Auckland to Whanganui, including the central high country, there is low confidence that they may become severe.


Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

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