TownsRuralMarineMtnsMaps

Severe Weather Outlook

Issued at 2:31pm Friday 23 Aug 2019
Valid from Sunday 25 August 2019 to Wednesday 28 August 2019

Strong to gale west to southwest flow affects New Zealand. On Sunday, there is low confidence of west to southwest gales becoming severe in exposed parts of Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Hawkes Bay north of Wairoa and coastal Gisborne.

A low is forecast to move east across the South Island on Sunday while an associated front moves northwards bringing a period of rain to the West Coast. There is moderate confidence of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria in Fiordland and Westland north of Otira on Sunday and Monday, while the risk is low in the remainder of Westland and Buller.

Winds tend northwesterly ahead of the front and strengthen as it moves north across the North Island on Monday. There is low confidence that west to northwest winds may strengthen to severe gale force in exposed parts of Hawkes Bay south of Hastings and Wairarapa including the Remutaka Hill road.

A second front is forecast to move north across the South Island late Monday and the North Island on Tuesday bringing another period of rain, however, rainfall accumulations are not expected to reach warning criteria at this stage.

A ridge is expected to extend onto the South Island from the Tasman Sea late Tuesday then move onto the North Island on Wednesday as another front approaches the South Island from the southwest. This front is forecast to bring another period of rain to Fiordland late Wednesday, however, rainfall accumulations are not expected to reach warning criteria at this stage.


Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30NZST. To ensure you have the latest information use your browser's refresh function.