Severe Weather Outlook

Issued at 2:31pm Thursday 14 Dec 2017
Valid from Saturday 16 December 2017 to Tuesday 19 December 2017

A weak ridge lies over the country during Saturday. A front preceded by moist northwesterlies is expected to move east onto the South Island during Sunday, then clear the rest of the country during Monday. The front is expected to bring rain to most places, especially in the east. At this stage, rainfall accumulations look to remain below warning criteria, but we will continue to monitor the situation, especially for eastern Otago where rainfall thresholds are lower.

A ridge builds over the South Island during Monday, then spreads onto the North Island during Tuesday. Meanwhile, a front moves onto the South Island on Tuesday followed by cooler southwesterlies.

Low confidence:
A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.

Moderate confidence:
A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

High confidence:
A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.

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