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Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to Midnight Monday 14 Oct 2019
Issued at 8:54am Monday 14 Oct 2019

A subtropical low is deepening north of New Zealand, spreading a strong, moist easterly flow over the upper North Island. Severe Weather Watches and Warnings are in force.

There is a Low Risk of thunderstorms over Northland this morning, extending to Coromandel Peninsula by late evening.

However, this afternoon, evening and tonight, there is moderate risk of thunderstorms over Northland, the Outer Hauraki Gulf and Great Barrier Island. Any thunderstorms here could boost rainfall rates to 25mm/hr.

There is also a Low Risk of Severe Thunderstorms over the same areas, with localised downpours possibly bringing rainfall intensities of 25 to 40mm/hr. If any downpours do occur, they could bring surface of flash flooding to low-lying areas, and make driving conditions hazardous.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere today.