Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

A weak surface trough, supported by an upper trough and cold upper level temperatures, is expected to move onto Northland from the Tasman Sea during Monday afternoon and evening. Some heavy showers are likely to spread onto northern New Zealand during this time, with a moderate risk of thunderstorms in Northland - mainly the Far North - and a low risk over Auckland and the Hauraki Gulf after dark. Any thunderstorms are likely to produce localised heavy rain up to 25mm per hour and hail of 5 to 10mm in diameter. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere.

A trough and weak front are forecast to cross Northland during the morning,before moving away to the north. Some heavy showers are possible in Northland at first, with a low risk of isolated thunderstorms along the north and east coast. Any thunderstorms are more likely out to sea, but if they do occur near the coast could produce locally heavy rain. A few heavy showers are also possible about the Gisborne coast during the morning, although thunderstorms are considered unlikely here. No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected during this period.